As the election results continue to come in, initial indications suggest that Jacob Zuma’s nascent MK party is poised to challenge the ANC’s dominance in KwaZulu-Natal. There are signs that the MK party could significantly reduce the ANC’s majority, if not seize control of the province.
In traditional ANC strongholds, early results show Zuma’s MK party leading the ANC by over five percent, with the IFP in third place and the DA in fourth.
Patriotic Alliance Gains in the Western Cape
Across the country, particularly in the Western Cape, Gayton McKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance is showing strong numbers, eroding the DA’s support.
Projections from eNCA and CSIR
Television news channel eNCA predicts that the ANC will retain control of the Eastern Cape and Northern Cape.
The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has forecasted a substantial 15% drop for the ANC in the final election results. According to Professor Pravesh Debba of the CSIR, their model predicts the final vote tally to be 42% for the ANC, 22% for the DA, 12.8% for the MK, and 9% for the EFF.
At the time of this prediction, the ANC had 41.5% of the vote, the DA 28.18%, the EFF 7.7%, the MK 7%, and the PA less than 2%. The PA is also expected to decline further.
The CSIR made this prediction with 8.5% of the votes counted. In the 2019 elections, their prediction was only 2% off the mark for major established parties. However, predicting results for new parties like the MK is challenging due to the lack of historical data. Professor Debba noted that the MK’s projection could be overstated due to this limitation.
In explaining the difficulties of forecasting for new parties, he referenced the EFF’s first election in 2014, where the model predicted 3-4%, but the EFF secured 8.39%.
The CSIR has been accurately predicting elections since 1999.
Current Vote Count
Most votes are coming in from smaller voting districts across the country. At 10.02% of the count, the ANC was below 50% at around 42% with just under 300,000 votes. The DA held steady in second place with 26.34% or 207,779 votes, the EFF at 8.1% or 63,932 votes, the MK at 7.6% or 60,115 votes, and the PA at 4.9% or 38,805 votes.
MK Party Criticizes IEC
The MK party has criticized the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) for “mismanaging the ongoing electoral process by undermining the constitutional rights of all South Africans to freely choose their government.” They argue that the commission “showed a lack of competence by ignoring to communicate critical changes to the Electoral Act, specifically Section 24,” regarding the requirement for voters to vote where they are registered.
Muzi Ntshingila, head of elections for the MK party, stated,
“This change was poorly communicated merely days before the elections, leading to widespread confusion and disenchantment among the electorate.”
He further added,
“Such missteps not only compromise the electoral process but also frustrated citizens whose primary concern is a change towards a better life from the pains of the (President Cyril) Ramaphosa-ANC.”
The MK party has called for the resignation of the IEC’s top management, accusing them of bringing the organization into disrepute.
Voting Delays Across the Country
Thousands of voters around the country were still in queues after midnight on Thursday, following the May 29 elections, which were marked by long lines, especially in the metros of Durban, Johannesburg, and Cape Town.
These significant delays were attributed to persistent glitches in the voter management devices (VMDs) at several municipalities, causing prolonged waiting times as voters queued to cast their ballots.
