The African National Congress faces mounting voter disillusionment and internal factional warfare ahead of the 4 November 2026 municipal elections, with multiple analysts and outlets documenting a party increasingly unable to govern itself, let alone the country. The decline follows the ANC’s historic drop to 40.2% of the national vote in the 2024 general election, when it lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994.
Reuters reported on 2 June 2024 that ANC support fell amid voter dissatisfaction over unemployment, inequality and power outages. DW has since reported that frustration is now tied to jobs, crime, corruption, service delivery and infrastructure failures, with the backlash intensifying as local elections approach. Mail & Guardian reported on 8 May 2026 that the ANC was expected to face stiff competition driven by protest voting over these same failures.
Daily Maverick argued in a piece published on 30 August 2026 that ANC factional battles and patronage have deepened the party’s decline. Eyewitness News reported on 26 August 2026 that political analyst Alex van den Heever said ANC policymaking has disappeared and the party is increasingly driven by factions competing for access to state resources. Van den Heever told Eyewitness News that the party had lost its ability to provide a coherent political vision.
Political analyst Daniel Silke, speaking to DW, described the trend in broader historical terms. “We are witnessing a continuing turning point in South African politics that began in 2024: the gradual disintegration of the former liberation movement,” Silke said. Fredson Guilengue of the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation, also speaking to DW, attributed voter anger to concrete governance failures.
“This reflects their frustration, particularly with the ANC’s failure at both the national and local levels to create jobs, tackle inequality, reduce crime and improve living conditions,” Guilengue said. The Citizen reported in January 2025 that analysts had warned new factional lines inside the ANC, including pro- and anti-GNU camps, would intensify toward the 2026 local elections and the 2027 ANC conference. Business Day opinion pieces published in August 2026 by Peter Bruce and Ziyanda Thando Nzimande separately described a leadership paralysed by internal war.
For communities across the Cape Flats and Cape Town, where service delivery shortfalls, unemployment and crime remain acute, the ANC’s internal dysfunction has direct consequences. Municipal governance affects water, electricity, refuse collection, housing allocations and local policing oversight — services that residents in areas such as Mitchells Plain, Khayelitsha, Manenberg and Delft rely on daily. The Western Cape is already governed by the DA, but ANC-led municipalities elsewhere in the country have been sites of collapsed governance, and national policy paralysis affects budget allocations to all provinces.
What remains unverified is the exact scale of ANC losses expected on 4 November. Claims that the ANC is on its “last legs” or heading for a political “funeral procession” by 2029, as framed in the Daily Maverick opinion piece, are speculative forecasts rather than confirmed facts. No credible source has verified precise predictions about ANC support dipping towards 30% in specific provinces. The verified core, confirmed by Reuters, DW, Eyewitness News and Mail & Guardian, is that ANC support has already fallen sharply, analysts expect further backlash, and multiple independent sources attribute that backlash to governance failures and internal factionalism.
Cape Flats News will monitor the 4 November 2026 municipal election results and provide ward-level reporting from Cape Town and the Western Cape as votes are counted. This article was verified through independent reporting confirmed by multiple outlets including Reuters, DW, Eyewitness News and Mail & Guardian. What remains unknown is whether internal ANC reforms, including the Kgalema Motlanthe-led electoral committee’s candidate selection process, will materially shift voter sentiment before polling day.