Motorists in South Africa are bracing for a mixed fuel price picture in August, with early indicators suggesting that petrol users might see modest savings while diesel consumers should prepare for further increases.
Unofficial data published by the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicates that petrol prices could decline slightly, with current projections suggesting a decrease of 24 cents per litre for 95 Unleaded and 28 cents for 93 Unleaded. These projections, however, are preliminary and based on mid-month data.
The situation for diesel is less optimistic. Should the current pricing trajectory persist, diesel rates are expected to rise by between 65 cents (50ppm) and 66 cents (500ppm). However, price shifts are volatile and may still change before the official announcement at month-end.
“These numbers can be a moving target and if the current daily price trends persist until month end, the petrol increase could exceed 30 cents, while the diesel increase could swell to over 70 cents.”
If these forecasts come to pass, motorists at coastal filling stations could be paying approximately R20.78 for a litre of 95 Unleaded, while those in Gauteng may see prices of R21.57 for the same grade. The 93 Unleaded variant is anticipated to retail around R21.49 in Gauteng.
“In that case, you can expect to pay around R20.78 for a litre of 95 Unleaded at the coast and R21.57 in Gauteng, where 93 Unleaded will cost around R21.49.”
Although it may seem contradictory that petrol is becoming cheaper while diesel becomes more expensive, the discrepancy stems from global demand cycles. Historically, diesel prices tend to climb during the northern hemisphere’s summer and winter seasons, both of which are marked by heightened travel and economic activity.
“Although it could seem strange that diesel is going up while petrol is coming down, these prices are determined by international demand patterns, which usually see diesel prices spiking in the northern hemisphere’s summer and winter periods.”
Notably, diesel demand typically increases in mid-year months due to economic and logistical activities in industrialised regions, which leads to elevated prices globally. Petrol, on the other hand, is not as significantly affected by these specific demand surges during the same periods.
The strengthening of the South African rand is also playing a minor yet helpful role in this month’s outlook, contributing roughly five cents of potential price relief. Nonetheless, it is the fluctuation in international fuel prices that remains the primary driver of these forecasted changes.
“The predicted price adjustments for August are mainly a result of international fuel price movements, while a stronger rand is adding about five cents worth of relief to the equation.”
Oil prices, which are closely tied to refined fuel costs, have maintained relative stability throughout July. Brent crude has hovered in a range between $67 and $70 per barrel, a marginal shift compared to the average of $69 per barrel during the prior review period.
“International Brent crude oil prices have remained relatively stable throughout July, moving in the range between $67 and $70 per barrel, after averaging $69 in the previous review period.”
The current developments follow the first fuel price increase in five months, which occurred in July. That hike saw petrol climb by between 52 and 55 cents per litre, while diesel rose by between 82 and 84 cents.
“July saw the first fuel price increase in five months, with petrol rising by between 52 cents and 55 cents, and diesel going up by 82 cents to 84 cents.”
Despite last month’s increase, petrol prices remain relatively close to where they were at the beginning of the year. In January 2025, 95 Unleaded Petrol cost R20.80 at the coast, and if the August decrease materialises, it will place prices back within that same range.
“Petrol is only marginally more expensive than it was in January 2025, when 95 ULP cost R20.80 at the coast. The predicted decrease for August will bring prices back into line with where they were at the beginning of this year.”
For now, South Africans can remain cautiously optimistic. While petrol users may benefit slightly in August, those relying on diesel will need to budget for a noticeable increase. As always, official prices will be confirmed by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy closer to the end of the month.
| Fuel Type | Projected Price Adjustment | Expected Coastal Price (per litre) | Expected Gauteng Price (per litre) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 Unleaded Petrol | -24 cents | R20.78 | R21.57 |
| 93 Unleaded Petrol | -28 cents | N/A | R21.49 |
| Diesel 50ppm | +65 cents | N/A | N/A |
| Diesel 500ppm | +66 cents | N/A | N/A |
