By Zainab Daniels
Petrol prices could rise by over R2 per litre to record levels on 7 October, according to Central Energy Fund (CEF) data released on 10 September, pushing inland 95-octane to around R28.85 and potentialy setting a new diesel wholesale record above R32 per litre. The hike, driven by Brent crude oil surpassing $100 a barrel amid escalating Middle East conflict, threatens to deepen cost-of-livng pressures for households across the Cape Flats.
As first reported by News24 and BusinessTech, CapeFlats.co.za independently confirmed the CEF under-recovery figures of R2.05 for 95 petrol and between R1.65 and R1.98 for wholesale diesel. The rand, trading near R16 to the dollar, has cushioned the blow by 15c to 20c per litre but not enough to prevent the record increses.
Global crude jumped after renewed attacks involving Iran, Houthis and the US, while Saudi Arabia halted some energy operations near its Yemen border. The surge pushed Brent past $100 on 10 September for the first time since uly, rattling markets already strained by the Russia-Ukraine war.
“Crude oil’s $100-a-barrel mark is a psychological level that matters for markets. It raises costs for businesses and consumers, and ultimately could weigh on economic growth,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB trading group.
For Cape Flats residents who rely on minibus taxis and bakkies, the fuel price surge will directly push up transport costs. Commuters from Mitchells Plain, Khayelitsha and Athlone to the CBD could see taxi fares climb by 10% or more within weeks, adding to already stretched household budgets.
The projected October hike caps a brutal year: inland 95 petrol has already risen from R20.30 in March to R26.92 in September, while 0.005% sulphur diesel nearly doubled from R18.60 to R30.05. If the full increase materialises, the cumulative rise since March will be R8.55 a litre for petrol, far outpacing any wage gains.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources will announce final adjustments at the end of September, with new prices effective from Wednesday 7 October. Daily swings in oil markets and the rand could still alter the final figure; CapeFlats.co.za will check for the official announcement as soon as it drops.
The exact pump price for October remains unverified until then, with mid-month projections ranging from R1.87 to R2.05 depending on which CEF snapshot is used. We will update this story once the department releases its final determination, expected in the last week of September.