Johannesburg, eThekwini and Buffalo City are among the metros poised for fiercely contested races in the 2026 local government elections, with competition largely shaped by voter dissatisfaction and coalition instability.
Political analyst Yolokazi Mfuto forecasted these metros as major battlegrounds during an SABC report on 2 November 2026, noting the growing number of registered voters. “Johannesburg, eThekwini in KwaZulu-Natal and Buffalo City in the Eastern Cape are expected to be among the major battlegrounds in the 2026 Local Government Elections,” Mfuto said.
Polling by Ipsos in June and July 2026 indicated particularly competitive contests between the ANC and DA in Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City. Ipsos’ study, which included interviews with 3,600 randomly selected South Africans in their homes, showed eThekwini as a stronghold for the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), historically linked to the Inkatha movement (MK), where it enjoys majority-level support.
Reuters contextualised the instability seen in Johannesburg, which has seen seven mayors since the last local elections in 2021 due to coalition governments repeatedly breaking down. The report also highlighted Buffalo City and Mangaung as among the ANC’s stronger metropolitan bases entering the election.
The electoral landscape remains unpredictable as campaigning continues. Ipsos cautioned that current voting intentions should not be seen as an assured prediction of the final results. “There is still much campaigning to do, many voters to persuade and many arguments to have before South Africans cast their ballots on 4 November 2026,” Ipsos stated.
Reuters further pointed out that South Africans would vote amid ongoing frustrations over poor service delivery, unstable coalitions, and rising living costs. These challenges underpin voter sentiment and cast uncertainty over incumbent coalitions, especially in metros like Johannesburg, where political volatility has been acute.
While Buffalo City remains competitive, the degree to which opposition parties like the United Democratic Movement (UDM) have intensified campaigning there remains unverified by independent sources. Similarly, claims about the exact registered voter count at 29.2 million and Buffalo City’s historical ANC dominance since 1995 could not be independently confirmed from multiple sources.
The 4 November vote in these metros will likely shape the overall control of South African urban centres and provide insight into shifting political dynamics amid ongoing service delivery challenges. The next update on election outcomes and coalition formations will come as results are tallied and early post-election analysis emerges.