Japan is on the brink of a demographic transformation. Long known for its ethnic homogeneity, with the CIA World Factbook citing the nation as being 97.5% ethnic Japanese until recently, this is poised to change dramatically. A report by Bloomberg sheds light on how Japan’s demographic challenges—namely a plummeting birth rate, an aging population, and a persistent labor shortage—are catalyzing the influx of millions of foreign workers, thereby altering the societal fabric of the country.
The surge in the foreign workforce is significant, with over 2 million foreign workers now residing in Japan, marking a 12.4% increase from 2022. To address an anticipated worker shortfall of 11 million by 2040, Japan finds itself in need of approximately 647,000 working-age immigrants annually. “Japan is entering an era of mass foreign immigration,” observes Junji Ikeda, the president of Saikaikyo, a Hiroshima-based agency focused on sourcing and managing foreign labor. Ikeda emphasizes that piecemeal solutions are no longer adequate for the challenges at hand.
A key initiative aimed at bolstering the workforce will see 820,000 migrants welcomed to contribute to the transportation and logistics sectors, doubling the number previously projected. This move, as Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi points out, is part of a broader effort “to make efforts to realize an inclusive society.”
The framework for this influx utilizes ‘skilled worker visas’, though the positions filled are varied, spanning taxi and bus drivers to factory workers. The service industry, too, is witnessing a growing presence of foreign employees, who will also have the opportunity to bring their families over, granting them indefinite stay in Japan.
The impact of this demographic shift is becoming increasingly visible, with The Economist providing a glimpse into what might be a common future scenario: convenience stores predominantly staffed by migrants. This is exemplified by a 7-Eleven in central Tokyo, where “all the staff are Burmese.”
The Spectator, citing Gearoid Reidy’s analysis in the Japan Times, notes the doubling of overseas workers over the past decade, with the broader foreign community expanding by 50 percent. Reidy predicts that foreigners could exceed 10 percent of Japan’s population, aligning the country’s demographic diversity with that of the UK, U.S., and France.
However, the end of the previous year brought with it the news of a rise in crime for the first time in two decades, hinting at potential societal challenges ahead. BBC News contrasts Japan’s historical resistance to mass migration with its past reputation as a peaceful, prosperous nation, known for its high life expectancy, low crime rate, and minimal political discord. The narrative of being “stuck in the past” is critiqued in light of Japan’s traditional values, such as affordable housing, limited immigration, and societal structure.
Despite the openness to foreign workers, Japan remains cautious about asylum claims. Starting June, a new policy will empower the government to deport foreigners who have had their asylum applications repeatedly denied.
This evolving narrative of Japan’s society reflects a significant departure from its historical norms, driven by demographic necessities and the imperative for an inclusive, diverse society. As Japan navigates these changes, the global community watches closely, recognizing the complex interplay of tradition, demographic sustainability, and the inclusivity imperative.
